← Glossary Marketing

Incrementality

Did this marketing actually cause the sale? Or would the customer have bought anyway?

Explained simply.

Incrementality asks the counterfactual question: if we hadn't run this campaign, would these sales still have happened? Because a lot of what attribution calls 'conversions' would've happened anyway. Retargeting ads 'attributed' to a sale that was already going to close are a classic case. You're just getting credit for inevitability.

An example.

Turn off brand search ads for two weeks. If revenue from branded terms drops 5%, that's the incremental contribution. The other 95% would have happened organically (customers typing your name into Google). You just saved 95% of that ad spend.

Why it matters.

Incrementality is the honest question. Attribution often credits channels that aren't actually driving anything. Geo-holdout tests, randomized experiments, and MMM are ways to measure it. The truth is usually: you can cut 20-40% of ad spend without losing revenue.