Growth models

A growth model is a spreadsheet or diagram showing how inputs (traffic, conversion, retention) connect to outputs (MRR, revenue).

Purpose

• Prioritize levers by impact
• Forecast outcomes of changes
• Align team on what matters

Components

• Inputs: traffic, conversion rates, retention, LTV, CAC
• Formulas linking them
• Outputs: MRR, revenue, users

Simple version

Even a 20-cell spreadsheet showing channels → visitors → signups → activations → paid → MRR is valuable.

What to do with this

• Build a spreadsheet-based growth model with each stage as a variable, running scenarios exposes which lever matters most
• Update the model monthly with actuals, the delta between model and reality tells you what assumptions to revisit
• Use the model to size bets, "if conversion improves 10%, revenue grows $X" makes prioritization obvious
• Don't over-engineer the model, a simple Sheet with 10 variables beats a complex consulting-style deck nobody updates
• Share the model with the team, shared visibility into the growth machine aligns everyone on what to optimize